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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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AC Oulu and KuPS share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Raatin stadion, Regular Season - 14, as AC Oulu and KuPS drew 2-2 in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AC Oulu 1.13 xG and KuPS 1.46 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. AC Oulu beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AC Oulu attack 0.86 / defence 1.26 against KuPS attack 0.75 / defence 0.85, drawn from 35/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AC Oulu 29% | Draw 26% | KuPS 45%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AC Oulu 58%, KuPS 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AC Oulu's trading profile (40 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

KuPS's trading profile (40 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. AC Oulu (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm. KuPS (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights