AC Oulu 1-0 KuPS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours KuPS (37%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as AC Oulu face KuPS.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AC Oulu and KuPS meet at Raatin stadion in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Friday 28 June 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
AC Oulu's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
AC Oulu's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Raatin stadion this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — AC Oulu are significantly better at Raatin stadion than their overall form suggests.
KuPS (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for KuPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KuPS's away record: 6W 3D 1L from 10 road trips in Veikkausliiga this season (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, KuPS are the stronger side — 1.30 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
KuPS hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 5 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Jun 2024, ended 1–4 with KuPS winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. KuPS have won 5 of 5 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
AC Oulu — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
KuPS — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AC Oulu 61% versus KuPS 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AC Oulu 65% | KuPS 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AC Oulu 1.15 xG and KuPS 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AC Oulu attack 0.884 / defence 0.978 | KuPS attack 1.016 / defence 0.843. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.296. Data: 34 AC Oulu games / 35 KuPS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AC Oulu 31% | Draw 32% | KuPS 37%. Fair-value odds: AC Oulu 3.23 | Draw 3.12 | KuPS 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is KuPS at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on KuPS if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AC Oulu 70% | KuPS 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AC Oulu vs KuPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Raatin stadion • Kick-off: Friday 28 Jun 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AC Oulu 31% | Draw 32% | KuPS 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 52% | xG AC Oulu 1.15 / KuPS 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: AC Oulu attack 0.884 / def 0.978 | KuPS attack 1.016 / def 0.843 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.296 • Poisson stance: KuPS (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
AC Oulu xG
Expected Goals
1.29
KuPS xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AC Oulu vs KuPS kick off?
AC Oulu vs KuPS kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 28 June 2024 at Raatin stadion.
What was the final score in AC Oulu vs KuPS?
AC Oulu 1 - 0 KuPS.
Where is AC Oulu vs KuPS being played?
The match is being played at Raatin stadion.
What competition is AC Oulu vs KuPS part of?
AC Oulu vs KuPS is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win AC Oulu vs KuPS?
Our statistical model gives AC Oulu a 31% chance of winning, KuPS a 37% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making KuPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in AC Oulu vs KuPS?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both AC Oulu and KuPS will score (BTTS).
Will AC Oulu vs KuPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between AC Oulu and KuPS?
Record (5 meetings): AC Oulu 0W | Draws 0 | KuPS 5W.
What form are AC Oulu and KuPS in?
AC Oulu (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. KuPS (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates AC Oulu's attack at 0.88x the league average against KuPS's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — KuPS's attack (1.02x) against AC Oulu's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 34/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 0-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KuPS Win
31%
3.26
32%
3.11
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
AC Oulu xG
Total xG
2.44
1.29
KuPS xG
3.26
31%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
8%
11.82
12%
8.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 11.3 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.9 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.4 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AC Oulu vs KuPS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are AC Oulu and KuPS expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for AC Oulu and 1.29 for KuPS, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for AC Oulu vs KuPS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 54 outings, AC Oulu have picked up 1.52 PPG on a 24W 10D 20L record — W-L-D-D-L across the most recent five.
KuPS's form line: 33W 11D 10L from 54 games, 2.04 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-W. The sample for KuPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, KuPS are the form team by 0.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against AC Oulu.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, AC Oulu have posted 1.58 PPG from 26 outings (12W 5D 9L).
On the road, KuPS have gone 15W 6D 5L from 26 away games — 1.96 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AC Oulu are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; KuPS are on 1.56 scored and 0.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AC Oulu have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: KuPS in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AC Oulu
Current Season
KuPS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AC Oulu and KuPS in coming into this match?
AC Oulu have gone 24W 10D 20L in their last 54 games (1.52 PPG), while KuPS have gone 33W 11D 10L in their last 54 (2.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AC Oulu at home or KuPS away?
KuPS's away record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AC Oulu at home: 1.58 PPG; KuPS away: 1.96 PPG.
Have AC Oulu or KuPS been keeping clean sheets recently?
AC Oulu have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, KuPS in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: KuPS won 0-3 on 17 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AC Oulu have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against KuPS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
AC Oulu
1
Draws
7
KuPS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AC Oulu and KuPS?
From 10 meetings on record, AC Oulu have won 2, KuPS have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AC Oulu and KuPS last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when AC Oulu 2-0 KuPS.
Who has won more matches between AC Oulu and KuPS?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AC Oulu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AC Oulu 54%, KuPS 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (AC Oulu) and 42% (KuPS).
On the defensive side: KuPS in 46%; AC Oulu have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AC Oulu home games / KuPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AC Oulu play KuPS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of AC Oulu's recent matches and 46% of KuPS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AC Oulu vs KuPS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of AC Oulu's recent games and 42% of KuPS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AC Oulu and KuPS tend to score early?
AC Oulu have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, KuPS in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as AC Oulu defy the odds to beat KuPS 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AC Oulu beat KuPS 1-0 at Raatin stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AC Oulu 1.15 xG and KuPS 1.29 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. KuPS landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AC Oulu attack 0.88 / defence 0.98 against KuPS attack 1.02 / defence 0.84, drawn from 34/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AC Oulu 31% | Draw 32% | KuPS 37%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual AC Oulu win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AC Oulu 65%, KuPS 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AC Oulu's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
KuPS's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.52. Form was overturned, with AC Oulu winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. AC Oulu (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line. KuPS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.