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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Kooteepee cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over AC Oulu.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kooteepee beat AC Oulu 0-2 at Raatin stadion, Relegation Round - 3, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AC Oulu 2.27 xG and Kooteepee 1.58 xG, a combined 3.85. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. AC Oulu fell 2.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AC Oulu attack 0.89 / defence 1.26 against Kooteepee attack 0.76 / defence 1.52, drawn from 44/22 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AC Oulu 53% | Draw 21% | Kooteepee 26%, with AC Oulu to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual Kooteepee win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 79% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AC Oulu 75%, Kooteepee 83%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AC Oulu's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Kooteepee's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, AC Oulu arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.58. Form was overturned, with Kooteepee winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. AC Oulu (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward. Kooteepee (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.91 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights