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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as AC Oulu edge out Kooteepee 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AC Oulu beat Kooteepee 3-2 at Raatin stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AC Oulu 2.17 xG and Kooteepee 1.48 xG, a combined 3.64. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. AC Oulu beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AC Oulu attack 0.95 / defence 1.32 against Kooteepee attack 0.76 / defence 1.51, drawn from 36/14 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AC Oulu 53% | Draw 22% | Kooteepee 25%, with AC Oulu to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 79% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AC Oulu 79%, Kooteepee 79%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AC Oulu's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Kooteepee's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — AC Oulu 0.64 PPG, Kooteepee 0.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AC Oulu win broke the near-deadlock. AC Oulu (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm. Kooteepee (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights