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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Inter Turku run riot with a 1-4 hammering of AC Oulu.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Inter Turku beat AC Oulu 1-4 at Raatin stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AC Oulu 1.09 xG and Inter Turku 1.39 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Inter Turku outscored their 1.39 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AC Oulu attack 0.99 / defence 0.96 against Inter Turku attack 1.04 / defence 0.78, drawn from 26/25 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it AC Oulu 29% | Draw 27% | Inter Turku 44%, with Inter Turku to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AC Oulu 61%, Inter Turku 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AC Oulu's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Inter Turku's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — AC Oulu 1.20 PPG, Inter Turku 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Inter Turku win broke the near-deadlock. AC Oulu (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Inter Turku (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights