AC Oulu 0-1 Ilves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AC Oulu at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this AC Oulu vs Ilves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AC Oulu and Ilves meet at Raatin stadion in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 4 August 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
AC Oulu have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for AC Oulu, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AC Oulu at Raatin stadion this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ilves (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ilves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ilves have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for AC Oulu, 1.60 for Ilves — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for AC Oulu, 4 for Ilves and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 4 May 2024, ended 2–3 with Ilves winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
AC Oulu half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Ilves half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — AC Oulu 73% and Ilves 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AC Oulu 68% | Ilves 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AC Oulu 1.27 xG and Ilves 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AC Oulu attack 0.857 / defence 0.806 | Ilves attack 1.052 / defence 0.913. League average goals — home 1.625 / away 1.477. Data: 39 AC Oulu games / 39 Ilves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AC Oulu 36% | Draw 30% | Ilves 35%. Fair-value odds: AC Oulu 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | Ilves 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AC Oulu at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AC Oulu if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: AC Oulu 60% | Ilves 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AC Oulu vs Ilves | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Raatin stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Aug 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AC Oulu 36% | Draw 30% | Ilves 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 53% | xG AC Oulu 1.27 / Ilves 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: AC Oulu attack 0.857 / def 0.806 | Ilves attack 1.052 / def 0.913 | league avg home 1.625 / away 1.477 • Poisson stance: AC Oulu (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
AC Oulu xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Ilves xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AC Oulu vs Ilves kick off?
AC Oulu vs Ilves kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 4 August 2024 at Raatin stadion.
What was the final score in AC Oulu vs Ilves?
AC Oulu 0 - 1 Ilves.
Where is AC Oulu vs Ilves being played?
The match is being played at Raatin stadion.
What competition is AC Oulu vs Ilves part of?
AC Oulu vs Ilves is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win AC Oulu vs Ilves?
Our statistical model gives AC Oulu a 36% chance of winning, Ilves a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making AC Oulu the favourite.
Will both teams score in AC Oulu vs Ilves?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both AC Oulu and Ilves will score (BTTS).
Will AC Oulu vs Ilves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between AC Oulu and Ilves?
Record (6 meetings): AC Oulu 2W | Draws 0 | Ilves 4W.
What form are AC Oulu and Ilves in?
AC Oulu (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Ilves (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates AC Oulu's attack at 0.86x the league average against Ilves's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ilves's attack (1.05x) against AC Oulu's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AC Oulu Win
36%
2.81
30%
3.37
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
AC Oulu xG
Total xG
2.52
1.25
Ilves xG
2.81
36%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
10%
9.82
10%
10.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 10.0 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.8 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.1 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AC Oulu vs Ilves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are AC Oulu and Ilves expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for AC Oulu and 1.25 for Ilves, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for AC Oulu vs Ilves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
AC Oulu's recent record stands at 14W 11D 19L from 44 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for AC Oulu is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ilves, meanwhile, have gone 16W 14D 14L across 44 games — 1.41 PPG, with D-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Ilves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for AC Oulu against 1.41 for Ilves. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, AC Oulu have managed 9W 6D 7L from 22 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ilves's away record stands at 7W 7D 8L across 22 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
AC Oulu are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Ilves are on 1.61 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AC Oulu have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 44 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AC Oulu
Blended
Ilves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AC Oulu and Ilves in coming into this match?
AC Oulu have gone 14W 11D 19L in their last 44 games (1.20 PPG), while Ilves have gone 16W 14D 14L in their last 44 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AC Oulu at home or Ilves away?
AC Oulu's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AC Oulu at home: 1.50 PPG; Ilves away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 8 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Ilves have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ilves won 0-4 on 16 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AC Oulu have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Ilves — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
AC Oulu
1
Draws
7
Ilves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AC Oulu and Ilves?
From 10 meetings on record, AC Oulu have won 2, Ilves have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AC Oulu and Ilves last play each other?
They last met on 8 May 2026, when Ilves 1-0 AC Oulu.
Who has won more matches between AC Oulu and Ilves?
Ilves have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AC Oulu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Ilves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AC Oulu 64%, Ilves 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (AC Oulu) and 36% (Ilves).
On the defensive side: Ilves in 32%; Ilves in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AC Oulu home games / Ilves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AC Oulu play Ilves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of AC Oulu's recent matches and 46% of Ilves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AC Oulu vs Ilves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of AC Oulu's recent games and 36% of Ilves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AC Oulu and Ilves tend to score early?
AC Oulu have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Ilves in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ilves defy the odds to beat AC Oulu 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ilves beat AC Oulu 0-1 at Raatin stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AC Oulu 1.27 xG and Ilves 1.25 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. AC Oulu fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AC Oulu attack 0.86 / defence 0.81 against Ilves attack 1.05 / defence 0.91, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AC Oulu 36% | Draw 30% | Ilves 35%, with AC Oulu to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Ilves win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AC Oulu 68%, Ilves 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AC Oulu's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Ilves's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AC Oulu 1.20 PPG, Ilves 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ilves win broke the near-deadlock. AC Oulu (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward. Ilves (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.