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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant HJK Helsinki run riot with a 0-4 hammering of AC Oulu.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

HJK Helsinki beat AC Oulu 0-4 at Raatin stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AC Oulu 1.04 xG and HJK Helsinki 2.31 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. AC Oulu fell 1.0 short of their projected output. HJK Helsinki outscored their 2.31 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AC Oulu attack 0.94 / defence 1.30 against HJK Helsinki attack 1.22 / defence 0.80, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AC Oulu 16% | Draw 19% | HJK Helsinki 66%, with HJK Helsinki to win its most likely call at 66%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AC Oulu 61%, HJK Helsinki 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AC Oulu's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

HJK Helsinki's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, HJK Helsinki arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.17. Form held, and they took the win. AC Oulu (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. HJK Helsinki (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.65 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights