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Shock result as AC Oulu defy the odds to beat Haka 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AC Oulu beat Haka 3-2 at Raatin stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AC Oulu 1.37 xG and Haka 1.72 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. AC Oulu beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AC Oulu attack 0.78 / defence 1.29 against Haka attack 0.83 / defence 1.05, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AC Oulu 30% | Draw 25% | Haka 45%, with Haka to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual AC Oulu win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AC Oulu 60%, Haka 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AC Oulu's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Haka's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — AC Oulu 0.90 PPG, Haka 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AC Oulu win broke the near-deadlock. AC Oulu (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm. Haka (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights