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Prediction vindicated as FF Jaro edge out AC Oulu 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FF Jaro beat AC Oulu 0-1 at Raatin stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AC Oulu 1.73 xG and FF Jaro 1.74 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. AC Oulu fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AC Oulu attack 0.96 / defence 1.28 against FF Jaro attack 0.90 / defence 1.13, drawn from 39/17 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AC Oulu 38% | Draw 24% | FF Jaro 38%, with AC Oulu to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual FF Jaro win had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AC Oulu 74%, FF Jaro 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AC Oulu's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.

FF Jaro's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — AC Oulu 0.84 PPG, FF Jaro 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FF Jaro win broke the near-deadlock. AC Oulu (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line. FF Jaro (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights