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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Wolves run riot with a 3-0 hammering of West Ham.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Wolves beat West Ham 3-0 at Molineux Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolves 0.99 xG and West Ham 1.74 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Wolves beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. West Ham landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolves attack 0.66 / defence 1.54 against West Ham attack 0.91 / defence 1.01, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wolves 20% | Draw 26% | West Ham 54%, with West Ham to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Wolves win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolves 60%, West Ham 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wolves's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

West Ham's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Wolves 0.79 PPG, West Ham 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wolves win broke the near-deadlock. Wolves (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line. West Ham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights