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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Wolves cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Tottenham.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Wolves beat Tottenham 4-2 at Molineux Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolves 1.18 xG and Tottenham 1.45 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Wolves beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolves attack 0.90 / defence 0.98 against Tottenham attack 1.03 / defence 0.93, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wolves 31% | Draw 26% | Tottenham 43%, with Tottenham to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Wolves win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolves 67%, Tottenham 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wolves's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Tottenham's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Wolves 1.13 PPG, Tottenham 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wolves win broke the near-deadlock. Wolves (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm. Tottenham (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights