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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Wolves and Sunderland share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Wolves and Sunderland finished level at 1-1 at Molineux Stadium, Regular Season - 35, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolves 1.37 xG and Sunderland 1.21 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolves attack 0.82 / defence 1.10 against Sunderland attack 0.88 / defence 1.19, drawn from 72/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wolves 39% | Draw 29% | Sunderland 32%, with Wolves to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolves 57%, Sunderland 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wolves's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Sunderland's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Sunderland arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.82. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights