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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Manchester United run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Wolves.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Manchester United beat Wolves 1-4 at Molineux Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolves 1.20 xG and Manchester United 1.92 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Manchester United outscored their 1.92 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolves attack 0.71 / defence 1.36 against Manchester United attack 1.11 / defence 1.09, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wolves 23% | Draw 23% | Manchester United 54%, with Manchester United to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolves 60%, Manchester United 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wolves's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Manchester United's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Wolves 0.85 PPG, Manchester United 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Manchester United win broke the near-deadlock. Wolves (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Manchester United (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights