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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Wolves defy the odds to beat Liverpool 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Wolves beat Liverpool 2-1 at Molineux Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolves 1.12 xG and Liverpool 1.59 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Wolves beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolves attack 0.83 / defence 1.15 against Liverpool attack 1.08 / defence 0.94, drawn from 67/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wolves 24% | Draw 29% | Liverpool 46%, with Liverpool to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Wolves win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolves 56%, Liverpool 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wolves's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Liverpool's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Liverpool arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.83. Form was overturned, with Wolves winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Liverpool (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights