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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Wolves run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Leicester.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Wolves beat Leicester 3-0 at Molineux Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolves 2.07 xG and Leicester 0.99 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Wolves beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Leicester landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolves attack 1.07 / defence 1.03 against Leicester attack 0.68 / defence 1.33, drawn from 71/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wolves 62% | Draw 21% | Leicester 17%, with Wolves to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolves 66%, Leicester 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wolves's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Leicester's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Wolves 1.18 PPG, Leicester 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wolves win broke the near-deadlock. Wolves (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line. Leicester (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights