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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Wolves and Fulham share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Wolves and Fulham finished level at 1-1 at Molineux Stadium, Regular Season - 37, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolves 1.19 xG and Fulham 1.01 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolves attack 0.79 / defence 1.09 against Fulham attack 0.76 / defence 1.01, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wolves 38% | Draw 32% | Fulham 30%, with Wolves to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolves 57%, Fulham 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wolves's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Fulham's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Fulham arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.81. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights