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Prediction vindicated as Everton edge out Wolves 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Everton beat Wolves 2-3 at Molineux Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolves 1.10 xG and Everton 1.27 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Wolves beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Everton outscored their 1.27 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolves attack 0.88 / defence 1.28 against Everton attack 0.83 / defence 0.84, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Wolves 32% | Draw 28% | Everton 40%, with Everton to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolves 65%, Everton 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wolves's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Everton's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Wolves 1.05 PPG, Everton 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton win broke the near-deadlock. Wolves (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Everton (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights