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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Wolves and Everton share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Molineux Stadium, Regular Season - 28, as Wolves and Everton drew 1-1 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolves 1.10 xG and Everton 1.15 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolves attack 0.89 / defence 1.08 against Everton attack 0.71 / defence 0.85, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wolves 34% | Draw 29% | Everton 37%, with Everton to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolves 68%, Everton 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wolves's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Everton's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Wolves 1.05 PPG, Everton 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights