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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Crystal Palace cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Wolves.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Crystal Palace beat Wolves 0-2 at Molineux Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolves 1.10 xG and Crystal Palace 1.78 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Wolves fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolves attack 0.86 / defence 1.51 against Crystal Palace attack 1.03 / defence 0.81, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wolves 23% | Draw 24% | Crystal Palace 53%, with Crystal Palace to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolves 63%, Crystal Palace 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wolves's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Crystal Palace's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Crystal Palace arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.90. That form edge translated into the three points. Wolves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward. Crystal Palace (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights