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Shock result as Burnley defy the odds to beat Wolves 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Burnley beat Wolves 2-3 at Molineux Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolves 1.93 xG and Burnley 1.46 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Burnley outscored their 1.46 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolves attack 0.85 / defence 1.39 against Burnley attack 0.86 / defence 1.53, drawn from 46/8 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wolves 48% | Draw 23% | Burnley 29%, with Wolves to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Burnley win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolves 61%, Burnley 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wolves's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Burnley's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 61% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Burnley arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 0.96. That form edge translated into the three points. Wolves (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Burnley (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights