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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Brighton cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Wolves.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Brighton beat Wolves 0-2 at Molineux Stadium, Regular Season - 36, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolves 2.13 xG and Brighton 1.55 xG, a combined 3.68. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Wolves fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolves attack 1.09 / defence 0.97 against Brighton attack 1.14 / defence 1.31, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wolves 51% | Draw 21% | Brighton 28%, with Wolves to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual Brighton win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolves 66%, Brighton 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wolves's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Brighton's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Wolves 1.19 PPG, Brighton 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Brighton win broke the near-deadlock. Wolves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward. Brighton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights