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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Wolves and Brentford share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Molineux Stadium, Regular Season - 38, as Wolves and Brentford drew 1-1 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolves 1.06 xG and Brentford 1.46 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolves attack 0.98 / defence 1.00 against Brentford attack 1.07 / defence 0.73, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wolves 27% | Draw 26% | Brentford 46%, with Brentford to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolves 65%, Brentford 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wolves's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Brentford's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Wolves 1.16 PPG, Brentford 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights