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Bournemouth cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Wolves.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bournemouth beat Wolves 0-2 at Molineux Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolves 1.63 xG and Bournemouth 1.96 xG, a combined 3.59. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Wolves fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolves attack 0.75 / defence 1.23 against Bournemouth attack 1.29 / defence 1.48, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wolves 30% | Draw 26% | Bournemouth 44%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolves 57%, Bournemouth 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wolves's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Bournemouth's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Bournemouth arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.82. Form held, and they took the win. Wolves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward. Bournemouth (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights