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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Wolves and Arsenal share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Wolves and Arsenal finished level at 2-2 at Molineux Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolves 0.69 xG and Arsenal 1.88 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Wolves beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolves attack 0.68 / defence 1.26 against Arsenal attack 1.17 / defence 0.69, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wolves 11% | Draw 26% | Arsenal 64%, with Arsenal to win its most likely call at 64%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolves 56%, Arsenal 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wolves's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Arsenal's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Arsenal arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 0.80. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Wolves (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm. Arsenal (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights