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Dominant West Ham run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Wolves.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

West Ham beat Wolves 4-0 at London Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting West Ham 1.27 xG and Wolves 1.00 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. West Ham beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Wolves landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Ham attack 0.90 / defence 1.09 against Wolves attack 0.73 / defence 1.02, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it West Ham 40% | Draw 33% | Wolves 27%, with West Ham to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Ham 54%, Wolves 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

West Ham's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Wolves's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — West Ham 1.04 PPG, Wolves 0.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the West Ham win broke the near-deadlock. West Ham (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line. Wolves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights