West Ham vs Wolves – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as West Ham defy the odds to beat Wolves 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

West Ham beat Wolves 2-1 at London Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting West Ham 2.10 xG and Wolves 2.12 xG, a combined 4.22. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Wolves landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Ham attack 0.97 / defence 1.33 against Wolves attack 1.13 / defence 1.31, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it West Ham 39% | Draw 22% | Wolves 40%, with Wolves to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual West Ham win had been the model's second-ranked read at 39%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 79%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 61% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 78% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Ham 67%, Wolves 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

West Ham's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Wolves's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — West Ham 1.29 PPG, Wolves 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the West Ham win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights