🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

West Ham and Tottenham share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

West Ham and Tottenham finished level at 1-1 at London Stadium, Regular Season - 35, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting West Ham 1.56 xG and Tottenham 1.63 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Ham attack 0.84 / defence 1.11 against Tottenham attack 1.05 / defence 1.26, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it West Ham 37% | Draw 23% | Tottenham 40%, with Tottenham to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Ham 60%, Tottenham 74%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

West Ham's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Tottenham's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — West Ham 1.22 PPG, Tottenham 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights