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West Ham cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Sunderland.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

West Ham beat Sunderland 3-1 at London Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting West Ham 1.29 xG and Sunderland 1.01 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. West Ham beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Ham attack 0.87 / defence 1.43 against Sunderland attack 0.59 / defence 1.01, drawn from 60/22 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it West Ham 40% | Draw 35% | Sunderland 26%, with West Ham to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Ham 57%, Sunderland 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

West Ham's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Sunderland's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Sunderland arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with West Ham winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. West Ham (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line. Sunderland (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights