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Shock result as Nottingham Forest defy the odds to beat West Ham 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nottingham Forest beat West Ham 1-2 at London Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting West Ham 1.36 xG and Nottingham Forest 1.30 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Ham attack 0.86 / defence 1.36 against Nottingham Forest attack 0.77 / defence 1.05, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it West Ham 36% | Draw 30% | Nottingham Forest 34%, with West Ham to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Nottingham Forest win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Ham 55%, Nottingham Forest 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

West Ham's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Nottingham Forest's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Nottingham Forest arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.98. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights