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Prediction vindicated as Nottingham Forest edge out West Ham 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nottingham Forest beat West Ham 1-2 at London Stadium, Regular Season - 37, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting West Ham 1.34 xG and Nottingham Forest 1.71 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Ham attack 0.83 / defence 1.08 against Nottingham Forest attack 1.15 / defence 1.13, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it West Ham 30% | Draw 24% | Nottingham Forest 46%, with Nottingham Forest to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Ham 58%, Nottingham Forest 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

West Ham's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Nottingham Forest's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — West Ham 1.24 PPG, Nottingham Forest 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nottingham Forest win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights