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West Ham cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Newcastle.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

West Ham beat Newcastle 3-1 at London Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting West Ham 0.83 xG and Newcastle 1.36 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. West Ham beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Ham attack 0.73 / defence 1.44 against Newcastle attack 0.80 / defence 0.77, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it West Ham 23% | Draw 28% | Newcastle 49%, with Newcastle to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a West Ham win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Ham 53%, Newcastle 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

West Ham's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Newcastle's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Newcastle arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with West Ham winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. West Ham (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Newcastle (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights