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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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West Ham and Manchester United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

West Ham and Manchester United finished level at 1-1 at London Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting West Ham 1.58 xG and Manchester United 2.25 xG, a combined 3.84. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Manchester United landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Ham attack 0.96 / defence 1.36 against Manchester United attack 1.28 / defence 1.11, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it West Ham 25% | Draw 24% | Manchester United 51%, with Manchester United to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Ham 57%, Manchester United 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

West Ham's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Manchester United's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — West Ham 1.05 PPG, Manchester United 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. West Ham (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights