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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Liverpool cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over West Ham.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Liverpool beat West Ham 0-2 at London Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting West Ham 1.71 xG and Liverpool 1.74 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. West Ham fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Ham attack 0.96 / defence 1.33 against Liverpool attack 1.05 / defence 1.15, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it West Ham 38% | Draw 22% | Liverpool 39%, with Liverpool to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Ham 56%, Liverpool 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

West Ham's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Liverpool's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Liverpool arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.08. That form edge translated into the three points. West Ham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward. Liverpool (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights