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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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West Ham cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Leicester.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

West Ham beat Leicester 2-0 at London Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting West Ham 2.04 xG and Leicester 1.30 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Leicester landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Ham attack 0.90 / defence 1.18 against Leicester attack 0.72 / defence 1.53, drawn from 64/26 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it West Ham 55% | Draw 21% | Leicester 24%, with West Ham to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Ham 62%, Leicester 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

West Ham's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.

Leicester's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — West Ham 1.28 PPG, Leicester 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the West Ham win broke the near-deadlock. West Ham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.74 average — tighter than their form line. Leicester (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights