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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant West Ham run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Leeds.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

West Ham beat Leeds 3-0 at London Stadium, Regular Season - 38, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting West Ham 1.51 xG and Leeds 1.07 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. West Ham beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Leeds landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Ham attack 1.00 / defence 0.96 against Leeds attack 0.91 / defence 1.03, drawn from 75/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it West Ham 46% | Draw 28% | Leeds 25%, with West Ham to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Ham 55%, Leeds 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

West Ham's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Leeds's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Leeds arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.05. Form was overturned, with West Ham winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. West Ham (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line. Leeds (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights