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Prediction vindicated as Fulham edge out West Ham 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fulham beat West Ham 0-1 at London Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting West Ham 1.67 xG and Fulham 1.89 xG, a combined 3.56. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. West Ham fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Fulham landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Ham attack 0.90 / defence 1.41 against Fulham attack 1.06 / defence 1.20, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it West Ham 35% | Draw 22% | Fulham 44%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Ham 54%, Fulham 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

West Ham's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Fulham's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — West Ham 1.02 PPG, Fulham 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fulham win broke the near-deadlock. West Ham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Fulham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights