West Ham 0-0 Everton – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates West Ham at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as West Ham face Everton.

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Fixture Analysis

West Ham welcome Everton to London Stadium in Premier League (matchday 11). Kick-off is Saturday 9 November 2024 at 15:00 UK time.

Form Guide

West Ham — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

West Ham at home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across their last 10 games, Everton have recorded 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Everton's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (West Ham) versus 0.90 (Everton). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 80% of West Ham's games and 60% of Everton's (from West Ham's last 10 home games and Everton's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 4 wins for West Ham, 2 for Everton and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 2 Mar 2024, ended West Ham 3–1 Everton — a West Ham win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

West Ham in-play and half-time data (last 48 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 37%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.

Everton in-play and half-time data (last 48 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — West Ham 69% versus Everton 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (West Ham 69% | Everton 44%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: West Ham surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while Everton have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 31% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Everton surrender HT leads in 36% of cases while West Ham recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 37% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects West Ham 1.80 xG and Everton 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Ham attack 1.060 / defence 1.149 | Everton attack 0.815 / defence 1.072. League average goals — home 1.583 / away 1.360. Data: built from West Ham's last 48 games and Everton's last 48.

Result probabilities: West Ham 49% | Draw 25% | Everton 26%. Fair-value odds: West Ham 2.05 | Draw 4.02 | Everton 3.81. West Ham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.80 / 1.27) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, West Ham are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on West Ham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 3.07 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (West Ham's last 10 home games and Everton's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: West Ham 80% (last 10 home games) | Everton 60% (last 10 away games).

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