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Prediction vindicated as Crystal Palace edge out West Ham 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Crystal Palace beat West Ham 1-2 at London Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting West Ham 0.88 xG and Crystal Palace 2.03 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Ham attack 0.82 / defence 1.52 against Crystal Palace attack 1.16 / defence 0.78, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it West Ham 15% | Draw 21% | Crystal Palace 64%, with Crystal Palace to win its most likely call at 64%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Ham 55%, Crystal Palace 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

West Ham's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Crystal Palace's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — West Ham 1.10 PPG, Crystal Palace 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crystal Palace win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights