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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as West Ham edge out Burnley 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

West Ham beat Burnley 3-2 at London Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting West Ham 2.06 xG and Burnley 1.69 xG, a combined 3.74. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. West Ham beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Ham attack 0.91 / defence 1.40 against Burnley attack 1.02 / defence 1.50, drawn from 48/10 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it West Ham 47% | Draw 21% | Burnley 32%, with West Ham to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Ham 54%, Burnley 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

West Ham's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Burnley's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Burnley arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.04. Form was overturned, with West Ham winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. West Ham (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm. Burnley (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights