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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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West Ham and Brighton share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

West Ham and Brighton finished level at 2-2 at London Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting West Ham 1.25 xG and Brighton 1.60 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Ham attack 0.81 / defence 1.34 against Brighton attack 0.95 / defence 1.02, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it West Ham 30% | Draw 25% | Brighton 46%, with Brighton to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Ham 54%, Brighton 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

West Ham's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Brighton's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Brighton arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. West Ham (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights