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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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West Ham and Brighton share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

West Ham and Brighton finished level at 1-1 at London Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting West Ham 1.68 xG and Brighton 1.94 xG, a combined 3.62. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Brighton landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Ham attack 0.98 / defence 1.23 against Brighton attack 1.10 / defence 1.05, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it West Ham 33% | Draw 24% | Brighton 43%, with Brighton to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Ham 67%, Brighton 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

West Ham's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Brighton's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — West Ham 1.31 PPG, Brighton 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights