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Brentford cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over West Ham.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Brentford beat West Ham 0-2 at London Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting West Ham 1.48 xG and Brentford 1.64 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. West Ham fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Ham attack 0.83 / defence 1.42 against Brentford attack 0.97 / defence 1.23, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it West Ham 34% | Draw 25% | Brentford 41%, with Brentford to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Ham 53%, Brentford 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

West Ham's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Brentford's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — West Ham 1.04 PPG, Brentford 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Brentford win broke the near-deadlock. West Ham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward. Brentford (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights