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Stalemate at West Ham's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

West Ham and Bournemouth finished level at 0-0 at London Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting West Ham 1.80 xG and Bournemouth 2.03 xG, a combined 3.82. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. West Ham fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Bournemouth landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Ham attack 0.95 / defence 1.27 against Bournemouth attack 1.25 / defence 1.31, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it West Ham 33% | Draw 25% | Bournemouth 42%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 91% and missed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Ham 56%, Bournemouth 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

West Ham's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Bournemouth's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — West Ham 1.05 PPG, Bournemouth 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. West Ham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line. Bournemouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights