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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Arsenal edge out West Ham 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Arsenal beat West Ham 0-1 at London Stadium, Regular Season - 36, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting West Ham 1.27 xG and Arsenal 1.49 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. West Ham fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Ham attack 1.08 / defence 0.99 against Arsenal attack 1.22 / defence 0.80, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it West Ham 31% | Draw 28% | Arsenal 41%, with Arsenal to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Ham 55%, Arsenal 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

West Ham's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Arsenal's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Arsenal arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was vindicated by the result. West Ham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward. Arsenal (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights