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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Tottenham and Wolves share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, Regular Season - 6, as Tottenham and Wolves drew 1-1 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Tottenham 1.23 xG and Wolves 0.96 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tottenham attack 0.91 / defence 0.98 against Wolves attack 0.81 / defence 0.95, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Tottenham 42% | Draw 29% | Wolves 29%, with Tottenham to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tottenham 63%, Wolves 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Tottenham's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Wolves's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Tottenham 1.12 PPG, Wolves 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Tottenham (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward. Wolves (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights