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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Tottenham and Wolves share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Tottenham and Wolves finished level at 2-2 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Tottenham 2.67 xG and Wolves 2.24 xG, a combined 4.90. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tottenham attack 1.41 / defence 1.33 against Wolves attack 1.15 / defence 1.27, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Tottenham 48% | Draw 20% | Wolves 33%, with Tottenham to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 87%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 96% and landed. Over 3.5 was 72% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 84% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tottenham 75%, Wolves 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Tottenham's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Wolves's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Tottenham arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights