🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as West Ham defy the odds to beat Tottenham 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

West Ham beat Tottenham 1-2 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Tottenham 1.44 xG and West Ham 1.04 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. West Ham outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tottenham attack 0.84 / defence 1.05 against West Ham attack 0.80 / defence 1.13, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Tottenham 43% | Draw 32% | West Ham 24%, with Tottenham to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a West Ham win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tottenham 63%, West Ham 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Tottenham's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

West Ham's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Tottenham 1.10 PPG, West Ham 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the West Ham win broke the near-deadlock. West Ham (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights