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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Tottenham and Sunderland share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, Regular Season - 20, as Tottenham and Sunderland drew 1-1 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Tottenham 1.13 xG and Sunderland 0.75 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tottenham attack 0.84 / defence 1.04 against Sunderland attack 0.58 / defence 0.89, drawn from 57/19 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Tottenham 43% | Draw 34% | Sunderland 23%, with Tottenham to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tottenham 63%, Sunderland 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Tottenham's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Sunderland's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Sunderland arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights