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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Nottingham Forest run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Tottenham.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nottingham Forest beat Tottenham 0-3 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Tottenham 1.40 xG and Nottingham Forest 1.72 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Tottenham fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Nottingham Forest outscored their 1.72 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tottenham attack 0.91 / defence 1.39 against Nottingham Forest attack 0.99 / defence 1.11, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Tottenham 30% | Draw 27% | Nottingham Forest 43%, with Nottingham Forest to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tottenham 65%, Nottingham Forest 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Tottenham's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Nottingham Forest's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Tottenham 1.00 PPG, Nottingham Forest 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nottingham Forest win broke the near-deadlock. Tottenham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights