🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Liverpool edge out Tottenham 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Liverpool beat Tottenham 1-2 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Tottenham 1.46 xG and Liverpool 1.46 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tottenham attack 0.84 / defence 0.98 against Liverpool attack 1.15 / defence 1.11, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Tottenham 37% | Draw 26% | Liverpool 37%, with Tottenham to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Liverpool win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tottenham 65%, Liverpool 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Tottenham's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Liverpool's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Liverpool arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights